Quem marca primeiro, vence? Comparando resultados de partidas e desenvolvendo um modelo preditivo de sucesso usando métricas de desempenho na Copa do Mundo de Clubes da FIFA 2025

Andreas Stafylidis; Athanasios Mandroukas; Charalampos Stafylidis; Yiannis Michailidis; Thomas I Metaxas

Autores

Andreas Stafylidis Laboratory of Evaluation of Human Biological Performance, Department of Physical Education and Sports Sciences, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, University Campus of Thermi, Greece
Athanasios Mandroukas Laboratory of Motor Behavior and Adapted Physical Activity, Department of Physical Education and Sport Science, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece
Charalampos Stafylidis Laboratory of Evaluation of Human Biological Performance, Department of Physical Education and Sports Sciences, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, University Campus of Thermi, Greece
Yiannis Michailidis Department of Physical Education and Sports Sciences, Democritus University of Thrace, Greece
Thomas I Metaxas Laboratory of Evaluation of Human Biological Performance, Department of Physical Education and Sports Sciences, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, University Campus of Thermi, Greece

Palavras-chave:

Análise De Desempenho No Futebol, Previsão De Resultados De Partidas, Mundial De Clubes Da FIFA, Modelo De Regressão Logística, Métricas Ofensivas, Métricas Defensivas, Análise De Posse De Bola, Taxa De Passes Certos, Indicadores De Desempenho, Análise Esportiva

Resumo

No presente estudo, analisou-se o desempenho de 96 equipes em 48 partidas da fase de grupos do Mundial de Clubes da FIFA 2025. As equipes que marcaram o primeiro gol venceram 62,5% das partidas (p < 0,05), enquanto os gols foram distribuídos uniformemente entre os tempos (p > 0,05) e apresentaram variação marginal em seis intervalos de 15 minutos, com pico próximo aos 30-45 e 75-90 minutos. As análises paramétricas revelaram um efeito significativo do resultado da partida sobre a posse de bola, com as equipes vencedoras apresentando uma posse média maior (53,3%) em comparação com as equipes perdedoras e empatadas. As análises não paramétricas identificaram diferenças significativas entre os resultados das partidas para gols marcados, finalizações, passes totais e completos, taxa de acerto de passes, quebras de linha defensiva, recepções no terço final do campo, progressões de bola, pressões defensivas e distância total percorrida. As equipes vencedoras marcaram mais gols e registraram mais finalizações a gol do que as equipes perdedoras, embora algumas métricas não tenham mostrado diferença significativa entre vitórias e empates. A análise de regressão logística identificou as tentativas de gol a gol, a pressão defensiva, o total de passes completados, a distância total percorrida e as recepções no terço final do campo como preditores significativos de sucesso na partida (AUC = 0,85), classificando corretamente 80,2% dos resultados. Esses resultados enfatizaram o papel crucial da precisão ofensiva e do domínio da posse de bola para alcançar o sucesso no futebol de elite.

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